AU Market Sizing — Reading Real Demand Signals

12 min · interactive · Beginner

You have a niche. Now: is there actually a market? AU TAM is different from US. Search volume is lower. But willingness to spend is higher. Today: how to read the three data sources that tell you if 1,000 orders per month is possible or fantasy.

The three data sources for AU market sizing

Data source 1: Google Trends AU

Google Trends shows search interest over time for a keyword in a specific market. It is not absolute volume (Google does not publish that), but relative interest.

How to read it:

Open trends.google.com
Search your niche: e.g., "pet feeding gadgets"
Set location to "Australia" (top-right dropdown)
Set date range to "Last 5 years"
Note the trend line: is it flat, rising, declining, or spiking?

What the numbers mean:

Index 80-100 (peak): High search interest, saturation risk, 1,000+ operators
Index 50-80: Healthy, growing, 200-500 operators in AU, room for new entrants
Index 20-50: Low interest, limited TAM, only 20-100 operators, small market
Index 0-20: Dead niche, skip it

Example interpretations:

"Slow feed dog bowl": Index 65, rising trend over 5 years → healthy evergreen niche
"Pet grooming glove": Index 42, flat trend → smaller niche, fewer operators
"Fidget spinner": Index 15, spike at 2017, flat now → dead trend
"Yoga mat": Index 88, sustained → very competitive niche

Limitation: Google Trends does not tell you purchase intent. High search volume can mean high competitor density (everyone is researching, nobody is buying). You need confirmation from data source 2.

Data source 2: AliExpress AU seller velocity

AliExpress shows you real purchase data — how many units a product has sold. This is ground truth.

How to read it:

Open AliExpress
Search your niche: e.g., "slow feed dog bowl"
Filter by "Orders" (column on the left) — this shows sold units
Note the top 5 products: sold count, time active (if available), price range
Calculate order velocity: sold count ÷ (estimated days active)

What the numbers mean:

Product A: 12,000 sold, estimated 1 year active = 33 units/day, A$995 revenue/day (if A$30 retail) = healthy market
Product B: 1,200 sold, estimated 6 months active = 6.7 units/day, A